Pushed to the Edge #7: A Tale of Two Launches

If you're in the business of games or technology, the new year begins with Vegas. This first week of each reborn calendar is typically given over entirely to the Consumer Electronics Show, which is fast replacing Ringling Brothers as the Greatest Show on Earth, or at least the biggest. Hundreds of thousands of attendees jam the Convention Center at the Strip to see the latest and greatest gizmos.

After Sony gave many journalists their first hands-on with the PSP last year, many hit the show hoping for a PlayStation 3 encore, despite Sony's assertion that the console would be a no-show. Holding true to their word, there's a big empty space where attendees hoped to see a silver PS3.

That's for the best, though. If you believe the cynics (and some leaked reports) Sony is having trouble making the console work, hence the silence. I tend to think the company is learning from the mistakes of Microsoft and keeping the PS3 well concealed until it's done. Fini. Gold master. We don't need trickling feature reports which are then rolled back or revamped. We need one report that the thing is done, what it can do and what it will cost.

The Sony PlayStation 3 Panasonic Blu-ray player

So here's a little PS3 prognostication: the Japanese ads start to fly on the first of May then we all see the console humming along like a supercomputer at E3. The Japanese launch takes place in June, the North American in September and Europe follows whenever Sony can get around to it. Sorry, old continent. It's tough to be stuck in the middle.

At least the spot isn't lonely -- Microsoft also seems to be stuck there. I haven't been too kind when it comes to the Xbox 360 launch, at least in my mind. There's been little reason to write publicly about the way the console was launched; there's a shortage, it will continue for a while, end of story. Maybe if the crop of games was more compelling I'd be more interested in adding another voice to the many already shouting at Microsoft.

Even if consoles were jamming shelves, I don't know that the picture would be rosy. Sony's silence seems to be building buzz rather than disinterest. Fewer people are buying games for current consoles until they see how the next-gen thing shakes out, and potential 360 buyers are waiting to see what Sony will unleash. And the PS3 will have a big advantage, no matter the price point: a built-in next generation DVD player.

Blu-ray logo HD DVD Verification disc

(I'm not discounting the Revolution; I just think Nintendo is wisely playing a very different game, and may be able to exempt the new console from direct competition with MS and Sony.)

And then on Wednesday after Bill Gates' CES keynote, Peter Moore took the stage to drop the other shoe. Later this year Microsoft will release an HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360 as an add-on. The peripheral has yet to be priced, or even shown off in physical form. With Toshiba's new players coming in at $499 and $799 in March, we can expect something cheaper to help move both movies and the 360 console. "Cheaper" will probably be relative to those standalone players, however. I'm putting my marker on the space that says $300.